The NBA is putting the Texas rivalry on the national stage early: Houston visits San Antonio on October 23, just two nights after the Spurs open against Oklahoma City. The Rockets get Dallas on October 21 before making the trip.[10] That is a tough first week for both teams. It is also an immediate look at the question that could define Houston’s season: who controls the game when the Spurs put size and pressure on the ball?
San Antonio has earned the favorite label
The Spurs are not a theoretical contender anymore. They reached the 2026 NBA Finals, lost to the Knicks in five games and return their entire 10-man rotation. Victor Wembanyama enters the season with a Defensive Player of the Year award, while Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper give San Antonio an imposing guard group.[3]
That continuity matters more to me than any preseason buzz. San Antonio already knows how to win deep into May; its task now is to hold leads it let slip against New York. The Athletic projects the Spurs to finish 56-26 and frames Oklahoma City and San Antonio as the West’s top tier. That is a forecast, not a result, but Houston has to treat it as a challenge rather than complain about being overlooked.[2]
Houston’s point-guard answer cannot be theoretical
The Rockets have put together consecutive 52-win seasons, yet they are still trying to advance past the first round. Kevin Durant returns for his second season in Houston, and Fred VanVleet is coming back after missing last season with a knee injury. With VanVleet out, Amen Thompson had to spend time playing out of position.[5][3]
VanVleet’s return should let Thompson attack from his natural spots more often. But “should” is doing work here. After a year away, VanVleet still has to show he can organize the offense against elite defensive length. San Antonio will test that quickly. If Houston cannot reliably start possessions where it wants, Durant’s shot-making becomes a rescue plan instead of the finishing touch.
There is another option to develop, not an instant fix to assume. Reed Sheppard averaged 13.5 points, 3.4 assists and 1.5 steals across 82 games last season, but he has yet to establish himself as a starter.[8] I want to see Houston trust his shooting while asking him to make real decisions under pressure. Against Castle and San Antonio’s rotating guards, that is a much sharper test than simply counting his points.
The young-core debate misses the matchup
NBA general managers gave the Spurs 87% of the vote for the league’s most promising young core, while Houston received none. That stings if you believe in Alperen Sengun, Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Sheppard and Tari Eason—and I do.[8] But voting for potential is not the same as solving a half-court possession in April.
Sengun averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists last season.[8] His passing gives Houston a way to play through the frontcourt when the guards face pressure. The catch is Wembanyama: getting Sengun the ball in useful positions, without letting San Antonio load up on Durant, will take more than one clever set.
October will reveal a problem, not settle the race
Nobody should treat an October 23 result like a playoff verdict. Both clubs will be coming off another high-profile matchup, and VanVleet’s return deserves time before anyone makes sweeping judgments. Still, the game can show whether Houston’s guards can create clean possessions against the team it is chasing.
My take: the Rockets have enough talent to push the Spurs, but not enough evidence yet that their point-guard play can consistently tilt this matchup. San Antonio gets the benefit of the doubt because its core has already survived a Finals run together. Houston can change that conversation by making Durant and Sengun the beneficiaries of a working offense—not the players asked to repair every broken trip down the floor.
References
- It’s Thunder, Spurs, then everyone else in the Western Conference: NBA predictions – The Athletic — https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7655950/2026/10/14/nba-predictions-thunder-spurs-lakers-timberwolves
- Young Grizzlies face uphill climb in star-studded Southwest Division — https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2026/oct/16/young-grizzlies-face-uphill-climb-in-star-studded
- Wembanyama’s Spurs are the team to beat in the Southwest, but don’t forget about Durant and Irving — https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/wire/sports/wembanyamas-spurs-are-the-team-to-beat-in-the-southwest-but-dont-forget-about-durant/article_9a1f01ef-70e3-5283-ac04-df8665438d5c.html
- What the NBA GM Survey Has Wrong About the Rockets — https://www.si.com/nba/rockets/onsi/what-the-nba-gm-survey-has-wrong-about-the-rockets-01m53633fqta
- San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder: How to watch the 2026 NBA season opener — https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/san-antonio-spurs-vs-okc-thunder-how-to-watch-the-2026-nba-season-opener-tv-channel-where-to-stream-schedule-and-more-115700420.html
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