A jacket felt right in Austin last weekend. This weekend, you may be looking for shade again. Central Texas has warmed quickly since its brief October cool spell, and the next few days bring a more familiar late-fall mix: warm afternoons, increasingly humid mornings and a chance of rain as Halloween approaches.
A big swing in one week
Austin reached just 69 degrees on Saturday, October 17, after a cold front moved through. The next morning, the temperature fell to 47 degrees in Austin, 44 in Bastrop and 40 in Blanco, according to FOX 7 Austin’s local weather report.[3]
That cool air did not stay long. For Saturday, October 24, the Austin American-Statesman forecast highs of 87 to 89 degrees along the Austin–I-35 corridor, compared with 79 to 84 degrees in the Hill Country. Its weekend outlook called for sunshine and temperatures generally in the 80s across Central Texas.[1] If you are heading out Sunday, plan for a warm afternoon rather than a repeat of last weekend’s sweater weather.
Why the warmth came back
An upper-level ridge—an area of relatively high atmospheric pressure—helped bring the sunshine and warming trend back to South-Central Texas. The National Weather Service’s Austin–San Antonio office expected daytime highs to rise above normal by midweek, according to an American-Statesman report on its forecast discussion.[2]
Southerly winds have also been bringing moisture back into the region. Forecast dew points of 60 to 65 degrees later in the week signaled air that would feel noticeably more humid than it did after the front.[4] Dew point is useful here because it tells us how much moisture is in the air: a rising dew point can make a mild-looking temperature feel less crisp, especially on an early walk along Lady Bird Lake.
Watch the sky early this week
The American-Statesman’s weekend outlook called for rain chances early in the week, decreasing by Wednesday, October 28, with clouds lingering afterward.[1] That is a reason to check the daily forecast before a commute or outdoor plans, not a promise that every neighborhood will get rain. The timing and location of any showers will matter more than a regional rain icon.
Looking farther ahead, the same outlook flagged another possible storm system late next week and into the following weekend. It could draw on moisture from the eastern Pacific and increase rainfall chances around Halloween, but that connection—and any local rainfall total—remains uncertain this far out.[1] If you have an outdoor event on October 31, keep the plan, but have a way to check an updated forecast later in the week.
Is this unusual for October?
The back-and-forth is familiar, but this month’s warmth has been notable. Through October 18, Austin’s average temperature for the month was 75.6 degrees, ranking among its 20 warmest Octobers to that point, according to the American-Statesman. Ten of those first 18 days reached at least 90 degrees, including a 97-degree high the preceding Tuesday.[2]
That does not mean every remaining October day will be hot. October is a transition season here: fronts can deliver a chilly Hill Country morning, then retreat while warmer air returns. The National Weather Service told MySA that more persistent cool weather is more likely to arrive in the November timeframe, though the timing of any particular front cannot be pinned down far in advance.[7] For now, dress for the warm afternoon, and check again before making a rain-dependent Halloween plan.
References
- Texas weather: How long will Austin stay sunny and mild? Here’s the weekend forecast. — https://www.statesman.com/weather/article/austin-weather-weekend-forecast-sunny-warm-breezy-22489800.php
- Austin weather: How hot will temperatures get this week? Here’s what forecast models say — https://www.statesman.com/weather/article/austin-weather-forecast-warming-trend-slow-steady-22484017.php
- Austin weather: Cool spell to give way to near-90-degree heat and rising humidity — https://www.fox7austin.com/weather/austin-weather-cool-spell-give-way-near-90-degree-heat-rising-humidity
- Sunny and dry in Central Texas, but across the U.S., wild weather hits both coasts — https://www.statesman.com/weather/article/austin-weather-sunshine-dry-wild-coastal-weather-22485700.php
- Here’s when Central Texas will finally cool off for the year — https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/texas-cold-front-22468157.php
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